The claim that progressive policies drive urban success confuses correlation with causation. America's major coastal cities are economically productive — but their prosperity predates progressive governance and often persists despite policies that create serious problems.

Consider the actual outcomes in America's most progressive cities. San Francisco, despite astronomical wealth, has the highest property crime rate among major U.S. cities and a homelessness crisis that costs taxpayers over $1 billion annually. Los Angeles has over 75,000 homeless people — a 70% increase since 2015 despite massive spending increases. Portland, Oregon embraced progressive criminal justice reform and saw property crime surge 31% between 2019 and 2022, leading voters to reverse their decriminalization policy in 2024.

New York City lost over 300,000 residents between 2020 and 2022, according to Census Bureau data. California experienced net domestic out-migration of over 700,000 people between 2020 and 2022 — the largest exodus in the state's history. Where are they going? Primarily to Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and other states with lower taxes, fewer regulations, and more affordable housing.

Meanwhile, cities and states with more conservative governance have been thriving. Austin, Nashville, Raleigh, and Boise have been among the fastest-growing cities in America. Texas added more jobs between 2019 and 2023 than New York and California combined. Florida's economy has grown faster than California's for over a decade while maintaining no state income tax.

The prosperity of liberal cities is better explained by factors unrelated to progressive policy: geographic advantages (ports, natural harbors), elite universities and research institutions built over centuries, network effects in established industries (finance in New York, tech in San Francisco), and federal investment (defense spending that built much of the California economy). These advantages create prosperity that can absorb bad policy for a long time — but there are signs that the tolerance is wearing thin.

Income inequality — supposedly a progressive priority — is actually worst in progressive cities. According to the Census Bureau's Gini coefficient data, San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles rank among the most unequal cities in America. Progressive governance has produced an hourglass economy: wealthy professionals and low-wage service workers, with the middle class squeezed out by high costs.

The cities that best serve working and middle-class families are not progressive bastions — they're places where housing is affordable, taxes are reasonable, streets are safe, and schools work.