The decision to close schools was one of the most consequential and, in hindsight, one of the most damaging policy choices of the pandemic. While the impulse to protect children is natural, the evidence strongly suggests that prolonged closures caused far more harm than the virus itself posed to young people.

The risk to children from COVID-19 was always extremely low. A study published in the European Journal of Pediatrics found the infection fatality rate for children aged 0-17 was approximately 0.002% — orders of magnitude lower than for adults. The American Academy of Pediatrics reported that children consistently represented less than 0.1% of all COVID deaths throughout the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the costs of closures were devastating. The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) — often called the "Nation's Report Card" — documented in 2022 that average math scores for 9-year-olds fell by 7 points and reading by 5 points, erasing two decades of progress. McKinsey & Company estimated that students in majority-Black schools lost an average of 6 months of learning in math compared to 4 months for students in majority-white schools, dramatically widening racial achievement gaps.

The mental health toll was equally alarming. The CDC reported in 2022 that 44% of high school students experienced persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness — a 57% increase from 2011. Emergency room visits for suspected suicide attempts among adolescent girls aged 12-17 surged 51% in early 2021 compared to the same period in 2019.

International comparisons are instructive. Sweden kept schools open for children under 16 throughout the entire pandemic with no mask mandates. A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine found that Swedish children had no excess mortality during the first wave and teachers had no higher risk of severe COVID than other professions. Similarly, many European countries reopened schools far earlier than the United States with no documented surges tied to school settings.

The prolonged closures in the U.S. were heavily influenced by teachers' union pressure. An AP investigation found that the CDC incorporated language suggested by the American Federation of Teachers into its school reopening guidance, raising questions about whether the guidance was driven by science or politics. The children who bore the costs had no voice in the decision — and it is the most disadvantaged children who suffered the most.