“Our prison system should focus on rehabilitation, not punishment. Locking people up doesn't work — it just creates more criminals.”
Incarceration does work — crime dropped 50% from 1991-2014 as the prison population grew. A NBER study found that each additional prisoner prevents roughly 15 crimes per year through incapacitation. Rehabilitation has a role, but public safety requires removing dangerous people from communities.
Key Talking Points
- 1Crime dropped 50% from 1991-2014 as incarceration increased — incapacitation works
- 283% of released prisoners are rearrested within nine years (BJS)
- 3Each additional prisoner prevents roughly 15 crimes per year (NBER)
- 4San Francisco recalled its progressive DA after crime surged under lenient policies
The Full Response
Rehabilitation is a worthy goal, and I support programs that genuinely reduce recidivism. But the premise that imprisonment 'doesn't work' ignores its primary function and the dramatic crime reduction it helped achieve.
From 1991 to 2014, violent crime in America dropped by approximately 50%. During this same period, the incarceration rate roughly doubled. While correlation isn't causation, a National Bureau of Economic Research study by economist Steven Levitt estimated that increased incarceration accounted for roughly 25-30% of the crime decline in the 1990s. Each additional prisoner prevented an estimated 15 crimes per year through incapacitation — simply keeping dangerous people away from potential victims.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics tracks recidivism extensively. Their nine-year follow-up study found that 83% of released state prisoners were rearrested within nine years. For violent offenders, the recidivism rate was particularly high. This isn't an argument against rehabilitation — it's evidence that many criminals, when released, continue committing crimes.
The recent experiments with reduced incarceration haven't produced encouraging results. San Francisco's progressive prosecution under DA Chesa Boudin led to such a spike in property and drug crime that voters recalled him. Similarly, cities that embraced no-cash-bail and reduced prosecution saw crime surges that disproportionately harmed disadvantaged communities.
Rehabilitation programs can work for certain offenders. Drug courts, vocational training, and cognitive behavioral therapy have shown promise for nonviolent offenders. But applying a rehabilitation-first approach to violent criminals — rapists, armed robbers, murderers — prioritizes the offender's wellbeing over their victims' safety.
The most effective approach is graduated: severe consequences for violent crime combined with genuine rehabilitation opportunities for nonviolent offenders who demonstrate willingness to change. Prison should be both a consequence and, where possible, a pathway to reform. But public safety must come first.
How to Say It
Support rehabilitation for nonviolent offenders — it shows nuance. But insist on the distinction between violent and nonviolent crime. The recidivism data is hard to argue against. Center the victims and community safety rather than defending 'tough on crime' as an abstract concept.
Sources — The Receipts
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